![]() Some new models, such as those involving battery-as-a-service (BaaS), could reduce up-front acquisition costs for E2Ws and E3Ws. Emergence of innovative go-to-market models.That shift will decrease the total cost of ownership and potentially stimulate demand, especially among B2B buyers and members of the lower or middle B2C segments. Over the next few years, prices are expected to drop to $90 to $130 per kilowatt-hour, from the current $220 to $280 per kilowatt-hour. Battery costs typically represent around 40 percent of the bills of materials for EVs, but that could change. Falling battery prices and lower total costs of ownership.In China, for instance, the government banned the sale of ICE scooters in 2011. Many of the regulations favor EVs, since they reduce the carbon footprint by 65 to 70 percent, compared with internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles. EVs are getting a boost from recent government regulations and incentives to reduce emissions. Environmentally friendly regulations and incentives.Here are the elements that are shaping the EV market: The forces driving electrificationĮlectrification is driven by a mix of regulatory push (policies designed to generate demand) and consumer pull (innate features or sales models that attract consumers). Elsewhere, the transition will offer global players an opportunity to gain market share, since demand for EVs will increase as their range expands. In China, where consumers have long had EVs with lead-acid batteries, replacement demand for vehicles with lithium-ion power packs could be high. Most E2Ws and E3Ws now rely on relatively cheap lead-acid batteries, but regulatory changes could compel a switch to the lighter lithium-ion power packs, which offer higher energy density and thus greater range. Electrification of heavy motorcycles will follow, but it won’t reach the levels seen with smaller vehicles. Globally, we expect electrification to accelerate most quickly in the scooter and light-motorcycle segments. ![]() One caveat: if more light commercial vehicles become electrified, they could become the default option for cargo transport, provided that their performance and economics improve. By 2026, around 80 percent of 3Ws in India will be electric. India sells the largest number of E3Ws by far, and they now account for about half of all rickshaws in the country. The story may soon change, however, since growth of E2Ws is plateauing in China and surging in the European Union, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Southeast Asia. What’s more, more than 80 percent of 2Ws in China are electrified, making it the dominant market by far in that category. Take China: the country now accounts for around 30 percent of the global market for small-format EVs. It’s impossible to generalize about global sales trends, since transportation patterns and preferences vary widely by location, but some country-specific developments are striking. (That figure excludes sales in China, which was an early adopter of small-format EVs and is thus experiencing slower growth.) By 2022, global sales of E2Ws and E3Ws could reach $150 billion. The sector has momentum, however, and global sales of E2Ws and E3Ws are increasing by more than 14 percent annually. The market for two-wheel EVs (E2Ws) and three-wheel EVs (E3Ws) was valued at around $97 billion, or 4 percent of global auto sales. The sales figures for small-format EVs may initially seem modest. A strong market for small-format vehicles ![]() Our analysis shed some light on strategies that can help OEMs and other players succeed as small-format EVs gain traction. To gain more insight into the burgeoning market, we examined worldwide trends for small-format EVs, looking at both geographic growth patterns and the forces shaping the industry. Improbable as it may seem, e-bikes could finally be having their day. Meanwhile, innovators have introduced new technologies and business models that are breathing life into the market for small-format EVs (those with two or three wheels). Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are increasing as governments crack down on emissions. Today, however, several trends have converged to bring e-bikes out of obscurity. Inventors patented the first electric bikes back in the 1890s, but their innovations never garnered the same attention as other early-transportation milestones, including the first subways and the Model T Ford.
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